Compass 2026 Housing Market Outlook: What It Means for Buyers & Sellers

As we step into 2026, many buyers and sellers are wondering what the year ahead may bring for the housing market. After several years of dramatic shifts, Compass’s newly released 2026 Housing Market Outlook points toward something many have been waiting for: a more balanced, stable market environment.

Rather than predicting big swings up or down, the report highlights a shift toward normalization — one where thoughtful planning and clarity matter more than reacting to headlines.

You can view the full Compass 2026 Housing Market Outlook here:
👉 2026 Market Outlook

Below, we’re breaking down the key takeaways and what they may mean for buyers and sellers locally.

A Shift Toward a More Balanced Market

According to Compass research, 2026 is expected to be one of the most balanced housing markets in years. After the volatility of recent cycles, several national indicators are projected to stabilize:

• Home prices are expected to remain relatively flat, with modest growth around +0.5%

• Inventory is projected to increase modestly, giving buyers more options

• Existing-home sales are expected to rise slightly compared to last year

• Mortgage rates are forecast to remain elevated but steady, averaging around the mid-6% range

Together, these signals suggest a market that is neither overheated nor stalled — but one where buyers and sellers can move forward with more predictability.

What This Means for Buyers

For buyers, a more balanced market can bring meaningful opportunities.

An increase in inventory may reduce some of the urgency and competition that defined previous years. While affordability is still a factor, Compass notes that improvements are more likely to come from slower price growth combined with rising incomes, rather than major price drops.

This environment rewards buyers who plan ahead — understanding their numbers, priorities, and options early — so they can move confidently when the right home comes along.

What This Means for Sellers

For sellers, the outlook emphasizes the importance of preparation and strategy.

As competition increases with more homes coming to market, thoughtful pricing, proper preparation, and strong marketing will play a larger role in achieving a successful sale. Sellers who plan ahead — rather than rushing — are often best positioned to take advantage of balanced market conditions.

In a normalized market, the details matter more than ever.

Why Local Insight Still Matters

While Compass provides a national outlook, local conditions will always vary. Inventory levels, buyer demand, pricing trends, and neighborhood dynamics can differ significantly from one area to another.

That’s why it’s important to pair national research with hyper-local insight. Understanding how these broader trends translate specifically to Sonoma County and Marin County is key to making informed decisions.

Looking Ahead to 2026

The biggest takeaway from the Compass 2026 Housing Market Outlook is this:
planning is more important than timing.

A balanced market creates space for thoughtful decisions — whether you’re considering buying, selling, or simply staying informed about your options. Having a clear plan allows you to move forward with confidence, without pressure or surprises.

If you’re thinking about a move in 2026, or just want to understand how these trends apply to your specific situation, we’re always happy to be a resource.

We’re realtors, moms, locals, and dog lovers serving Sonoma County and Marin County, who love sharing everything about where we live and the neighborhoods we explore. Follow along by signing up for our weekly newsletter with local favorites and the latest in real estate.