Do Home Prices Drop During a Recession?

Do Home Prices Drop During a Recession? Not Always—Here's What Sonoma + Marin County Buyers Should Know

If you’ve been holding off on buying a home because of talk about a possible recession, you’re not alone. But here’s the surprising truth:
In 7 of the last 9 U.S. recessions, home prices actually went up.

That’s right—recessions don’t always equal housing crashes. The 2008 market crash was an exception, not the rule. That downturn was directly tied to the housing and lending industry, making it very different from economic slowdowns we're seeing today.

📈 Why Home Prices Tend to Stay Strong During Recessions

Historically, real estate has remained a resilient long-term investment—even during periods of economic uncertainty. Here's why:

• Housing is a basic need. People will always need a place to live, regardless of market cycles.

• Lower interest rates often accompany recessions, making it easier for buyers to finance.

• Inventory tends to tighten, which can support prices even if buyer demand slows.

🏡 What This Means for Sonoma + Marin County Buyers

Sonoma + Marin County has a unique housing market shaped by limited supply, high quality of life, and strong long-term demand. Here’s what we’re seeing right now:

• Inventory has increased compared to last year, giving buyers more choices.

• Prices remain relatively stable—but motivated sellers are open to fair negotiations.

• Interest rates are fluctuating, but buyers focused on monthly payments and long-term equity are still finding success.

✅ Our Advice?

Don’t wait for a crash that may never come. Instead, take a smart, informed approach:

• Get clear on your numbers

• Explore different loan options (including rate buydowns!)

• Work with a local expert who knows how to navigate this market

💬 Ready to Talk Strategy?

Whether you’re a first-time buyer or moving up to your next home, we’re here to help you make confident, educated decisions in today’s market.

📩 Contact us for:

• Our free Buyer Roadmap + Budget Worksheet

• A personalized local market update

• Access to Compass Private Exclusives + off-market listings

We’re realtors, moms, locals, and dog lovers serving Sonoma County and Marin County, who love sharing everything about where we live and the neighborhoods we explore. Follow along by signing up for our weekly newsletter with local favorites and the latest in real estate.