Spring 2026 Housing Market Forecast: What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

The Spring Housing Market Is Starting to Take Shape

Spring is traditionally the busiest season for real estate, and 2026 is shaping up to be an interesting year for the housing market.

After several years of high mortgage rates and limited inventory, economists are starting to see signs of a market that is slowly stabilizing. While conditions are still evolving, many experts believe the housing market may finally be moving toward a more balanced environment for buyers and sellers.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling this year, here’s what economists and housing experts are watching as the spring market begins.

Mortgage Rates Are Expected to Stay Around the 6% Range

Mortgage rates have been one of the biggest drivers of housing market activity over the past few years.

After reaching peaks above 7% in 2023, rates have gradually eased. Many forecasts suggest mortgage rates will hover around the mid-6% range throughout 2026, with the possibility of modest declines depending on inflation and broader economic conditions.

Recently, the average 30-year mortgage rate has been around 6.1%–6.2%, which is lower than last year and helping bring some buyers back into the market.

While rates are unlikely to drop dramatically, even small improvements in borrowing costs can have a significant impact on affordability.

For many buyers who paused their search over the past two years, these slightly lower rates may be enough to restart their home search this spring.

Home Sales Are Expected to Increase in 2026

One of the most notable predictions from housing economists is that home sales could rise significantly in 2026.

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, existing home sales could increase by about 14% this year as mortgage rates stabilize and more homeowners decide to list their homes.

For the past few years, many homeowners chose not to sell because they were locked into very low mortgage rates from 2020 and 2021. This created what economists often call the “lock-in effect.”

Now, as life changes such as job moves, growing families, and downsizing continue to happen, more homeowners are expected to list their homes despite higher mortgage rates.

More listings means buyers may start to see slightly improved inventory compared to the past few years, which could make the market feel less competitive in some areas.

Home Prices Are Expected to Grow Slowly

Unlike the dramatic price increases seen during the pandemic housing boom, economists are predicting a much more moderate pace of price growth in 2026.

Many forecasts suggest home prices will increase around 2–3% nationally, which is closer to the pace of normal inflation.

Other forecasts suggest price growth may be even more modest, with national home prices rising around 1% year over year due to affordability challenges and mortgage rates remaining elevated.

For homeowners, this means home values are expected to remain stable with gradual appreciation rather than sharp spikes.

For buyers, slower price growth can make it easier to enter the market without feeling like prices are rapidly getting out of reach.

Inventory Is Slowly Improving

One of the biggest challenges for buyers over the past several years has been extremely limited housing inventory.

There simply haven’t been enough homes for sale to meet buyer demand.

Inventory is beginning to improve slightly as:

• More homeowners decide to sell

• New construction continues to add supply

• Some buyers step back due to affordability

Even with these improvements, housing supply remains historically low. For example, recent data shows about 3.8 months of housing supply nationwide, which is still below the 5–6 months that economists typically consider a balanced market.

This means many desirable homes may still receive strong interest, especially in highly sought-after areas.

Buyer Demand Is Beginning to Return

As mortgage rates ease and the market stabilizes, buyer activity is starting to increase.

Recent data shows existing home sales rose about 1.7% earlier this year, suggesting buyers are beginning to re-enter the market as conditions improve.

First-time buyers are also becoming a larger portion of the market again, accounting for roughly 34% of recent home purchases.

This shift could bring more activity to the market this spring, especially in price ranges that appeal to first-time buyers and move-up buyers.

What This Means for Sonoma County

While national trends are helpful, real estate is always local.

In Sonoma County, most forecasts suggest home prices will remain relatively stable in 2026, with modest appreciation in desirable neighborhoods rather than dramatic increases or decreases.

Wine Country continues to attract buyers for several reasons:

• Lifestyle and natural beauty

• Proximity to San Francisco and Marin County

• Strong demand for homes with space and outdoor access

Many buyers relocating from other parts of California still see Sonoma County as offering strong long-term value compared to nearby Bay Area markets.

What Buyers Should Know This Spring

For buyers, the 2026 market may offer a few advantages compared to the past several years:

• Slightly improved inventory

• Stabilizing mortgage rates

• Slower home price growth

However, desirable homes may still attract strong interest, particularly in family-friendly neighborhoods or areas close to downtowns, schools, and outdoor amenities.

Being prepared with financing and a clear home search strategy will remain important.

What Sellers Should Know This Spring

For sellers, the spring market is still likely to bring strong buyer interest.

Even with improved inventory, housing supply remains relatively limited in many areas, which means well-priced homes in desirable locations can still attract significant attention.

However, the market is becoming more balanced compared to the intense bidding wars of 2021 and 2022.

Pricing a home correctly and preparing it well for the market will be especially important in this environment.

The Bottom Line

The Spring 2026 housing market appears to be moving toward a more stable and balanced phase.

Economists are expecting:

• Mortgage rates around the mid-6% range

• A potential increase in home sales

• Slower, steadier home price growth

• Gradually improving housing inventory

For both buyers and sellers, this may create opportunities that haven’t existed in the market over the past few years.

As always, the best strategy depends on your personal goals, timing, and local market conditions.

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